What do the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter, and the internet have in common? Why are all prognosticators con artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And why should you never run in front of a train or read a newspaper? This book is about "Black Swans": the random events that shape our lives, from bestsellers to global disasters. Their impact is enormous; they are impossible to predict; yet after they happen, we always try to rationalize them. "The Black Swan" is a call to ignore the so-called experts and shows us the way to profit from uncertainty. This learning tool is suitable for self-study and offers a deeper understanding of unpredictable events in our world.